Tag: assemblyelection

Candidate Comments: Chris von Ruhland – Green Party

Guest post by Chris von Ruhland

Chris von Ruhland is the Green Party’s constituency candidate for Cardiff North and regional list candidate for South Wales Central.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, My Cardiff North.

Photo of Chris von Ruhland

When I first visited Cardiff, over 35 years ago, what first impressed me was Bute Park and Sophia Gardens; magnificent public green spaces right in the middle of the city and flanking its major river. This contrasted sharply with the city from which I had come, namely London. I was informed that Cardiff had a greater proportion of green spaces than any other European city.

When I moved to Cardiff a few years later to study, and finally to live and work, I had many opportunities to explore it further. What struck me, in particular, was that the edges of the city, to the north and to the west at least, were clearly visible from many parts of Cardiff. I had lived for the past 2 years in southern Plymouth and, standing on the Hoe and looking north, all that I could see was a hillside covered in houses, like a huge wave of brick and stone. This contrasted sharply with the view that I now beheld. Cardiff was clearly a very special city.

The reason that the land to the north of the M4 has remained undeveloped is, primarily, topography; there are flatter places to build. Another reason is that the M4 motorway forms a barrier, albeit an unnatural one, to Cardiff’s northern expansion. There has also been considerable reluctance on the part of the city council, over many years and political hues, to release the land for development.

Bluebells on the Wenallt

While this area has been designated a green wedge under the local development plan, it only confers protection until 2026. Residents, councillors, local MPs and AMs are unanimous in their support for a Green Belt, that would protect this area for future generations, yet Cardiff Council failed to convince the planning inspectors.

Chris von Ruhland profile graphicThe inspectors were subject to the requirements of Planning Policy Wales, which has existed since 2002 and is now in its 8th edition. It is surprising, therefore, that any objections to the green belt proposal were not predicted and adequately addressed, particularly when the two institutions are a stone’s throw apart. Don’t people talk to one another?

The problem is that there appears to be no long term vision of how Wales in general, and Cardiff in particular will look in several decades’ time. Without this, there can be no meaningful short term planning; it is purely a reaction to existing circumstances. Cities, in general, become worse places as they get bigger; people must travel further for work, leisure and shopping, traffic congestion becomes a daily grind and air pollution becomes a serious problem. Cardiff seems to be on this trajectory, having become a victim of its own success. The demand for housing has never been greater and large areas of what remains of the green spaces that surround the city have been earmarked for development, with little apparent thought given to the necessary infrastructure requirements.

Such a laissez faire attitude will not protect the remaining green spaces and Cardiff is likely to expand inexorably, merging with Caerphilly to the north and Barry to the west; indeed, westward expansion into the Vale of Glamorgan was proposed many years ago to bring Cardiff airport into the city boundary. Fortunately, this madcap scheme was shelved.

In the city, we are constantly subjected to the sharp angles of buildings and, increasingly, great swathes of bland grey concrete or cladding; little wonder that some take it upon themselves to decorate these surfaces with graffiti/ urban art, depending upon your viewpoint. The natural and rural environment provide a necessary relief from these assaults on our senses. What is important, I think, is not just having open countryside so close to the city, but being able to see it, to know it is there. It defines its boundary. To lose this would be a travesty.

If we are to protect what we value, then we need to plan long-term, and much longer term than we have become  used to. Greens do this as a matter of course, which is why their voices are so desperately needed in the Senedd. What should be a place of vibrant and diverse political debate has become rather staid, with one party permanently in power. Little wonder that less has been achieved than we might expect. We need to shake up the Senedd.

By Chris von Ruhland

twitter.com/chrisvonruhland

How the Welsh voting system could secure nine Assembly seats for Ukip

The Conversation logo

Exterior of The Senedd (National Assembly building)

Jac Larner, Cardiff University

On May 5, voters in Wales will head to the polls to elect the country’s fifth devolved government. This forthcoming National Assembly is set to look dramatically different to all of those preceding it, namely because of the addition of one party – Ukip.

Polls in Wales have shown the party steadily increasing its support, building upon its strong 2015 General Election performance, when Ukip came second to Labour in six of Wales’ constituencies, and third overall in the Welsh popular vote. Indeed, it appears as if nothing is able to stop their march on the Senedd.

Despite a month of media coverage of Welsh Ukip infighting and lack of cohesion, the latest Wales Barometer Poll recorded the party’s highest level of support yet in Wales – 18% at both the constituency and regional level. With the Conservative party at 22% and Plaid Cymru at 19%, there could very well be a three-way struggle for the position of Wales’ second largest party.

For a party that at its peak had just two MPs, both from the South East of England, many outside Wales reacted with shock to the news that Ukip could achieve such significant levels of support in Wales. The Financial Times went so far as to describe Ukip’s position in Wales as “surging”.

However, this characterisation is mistaken. Ukip support in Wales is broadly in line with that of much of England. In the 2015 general election, Ukip received 14.1% of the vote in England – compared to 13.6% in Wales – while in the northeast of England – the region most similar demographically to Wales – Ukip received 16.7% of the popular vote. A YouGov poll on February 4 measured UK-wide Ukip support at 18% –- the same as that recorded in Wales.

The difference is that in Wales, Ukip could realistically convert this support into significant representation in the Assembly. It is less a matter of “surging” support in Wales and more a symptom of an electoral system that could bring them actual power.

The electoral system used in the UK for general elections in effect penalises the sort of broad support that Ukip has (think back to the Liberal Democrats in 2010). In order to win representation at Westminster, it’s necessary to have geographically concentrated support, to win in First Past the Post (FPTP) constituency contests.

For the Welsh Assembly elections, however, a different electoral system is used, one which combines two votes: one FPTP, and one which is a form of proportional representation (PR). This PR section of the vote “penalises” parties that win constituency contests, making it easier for smaller parties to win seats. This system suits Ukip very well, as, unlike Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, their broad levels of support aren’t concentrated enough to win constituency seats.

So, while levels of support for Ukip in Wales are not particularly different from anywhere else, the electoral system in Wales is better suited to transform their levels of support into representation.

Interior of The Senedd (National Assembly building)

Though Ukip support in Wales may not be surging, it undoubtedly appears to be increasing steadily: Ukip support in the regional list has grown from 13% in a May 2015 Barometer poll to 18% in the most recent.

What is behind this steady increase isn’t entirely clear. One possible explanation is the dramatic increase in media coverage of the impending EU referendum. Ukip has attempted to position itself, with some success, as representing one side of that debate – so much so that a media discussion of the EU is often accompanied by a mention of Ukip.

With the EU referendum now confirmed to take place shortly after the Assembly elections in May, the EU vote is likely to supplant the National Assembly for Wales as the top political news story. As a result, the publicity Ukip receive will get a significant boost. Indeed, the same Barometer poll that measured Ukip’s support at 18%, also showed that 45% of respondents would opt to leave the EU, compared to 37% who would opt to stay. It’s possible that the interplay between these two political events will only increase as both campaigns get closer.

Whether Ukip can turn this support and coverage into seats in the Senedd, however, will likely be a question of turnout. Turnout is historically lower in Assembly elections – just 41.4% in 2011 – so “getting the vote out” is vital for parties to succeed. Plaid Cymru, for example, has historically been successful at this, achieving vote shares an average 10% higher in Assembly elections than general elections. Ukip, is somewhat of an unknown quantity here.

With the EU referendum just seven weeks after the devolved elections, it will be interesting to see what effect – if any – this has with their supporters. Will Ukip supporters have their attention focused on the “big one”, and neglect the Welsh vote? Or will they be galvanised and use the devolved elections as a launchpad for their campaign? How Ukip supporters react, could well decide the makeup of the next National Assembly for Wales.

The Conversation

Jac Larner, PhD researcher, Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Image credit – Marc | Glenn Wood

My Daily Cardiff North – 18 Nov 2015

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Rhiwbina community group needs to raise money to pay for Christmas lights road closure – http://livingmags.co.uk/rhiwbina-sos-save-our-christmas-lights/

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